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That rural exodus has come to an end, with fewer migrant workers to begin with, and those who seek employment no longer willing to put up with the low pay or dismal working conditions of factories in Shenzhen or other coastal manufacturing cities. Low-paid work is now moving offshore. And in the factories that remain, Chinese employers are moving headlong into replacing humans with robots.
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Although many commentators have said that cyber warfare will completely change the nature of warfare, the main threat posed by cyber weapons is their ability to be used in an attack without warning and achieve various levels of disruption. Potential cyber warfare scenarios include coordinated cyber-weapon attacks that sabotage multiple infrastructure assets simultaneously. One scenario would involve power, the Internet, cash machines, broadcast media, traffic lights, financial systems, and air-traffic software simultaneously failing for a period of weeks. Although some computer systems are more secure than others, few, if any, systems are completely secure against a cyberattack.
The possible shift to low-to-medium energy prices is already sending geopolitical shockwaves. Most of the world’s oil producers had come to rely on high oil prices to fund government budgets. Even before the oil-price crash in 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was warning oil producers about their dependence on high oil prices. Even with historically high oil prices, many producers—Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, and Libya—found it difficult to balance their spending with available revenue. With little likelihood of a return to those historically high rates, Saudi Arabia—whose production costs are among the lowest—has already begun planning to dramatically diversify its economy away from oil production. The beneficiaries of the lower prices are the many poor countries that lack their own energy resources. For many of those countries, high oil prices had been a factor in their current account deficits and debt. With lower outlays on imported energy, they can devote resources to investments in infrastructure, education, and other pressing needs.
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While some would not consider Iran a Middle Eastern country, the road that Iran takes will also be important. One path would be for Iran to focus more on modernization and domestic reform. A second would be to extend its regional influence through support for radical Shia groups. Integration of Iran into the world community is also important in view of the ten-year international agreement on its stand-down from developing nuclear weapons. An Iran that believes it did not get the economic payoff—relaxation of international sanctions—may decide to revisit the terms of the agreement when it expires. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the region would probably be prepared to take military action to prevent Iran from restarting its nuclear-weapons program, throwing the region and the rest of the world back into crisis. How the Middle East evolves is of key importance for the rest of the world. A Middle East still mired in turmoil or open Sunni-Shia conflict in 2035 decreases the likelihood of global security and prosperity. This report forecasts two types of scenarios.
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An alternative scenario would center on ending the violence in Syria and Iraq and building up regional cooperation as necessary prerequisites for economic development and down-the-road political stability. Without peace and regional cooperation, economic-development efforts risk failure. It is also premised on the belief that the region will not be able to achieve regional cooperation without outside help. The sources of instability are so deeply imbedded that, without some nudges and oversight, it is unlikely that the region can be put on course for cooperation and growth.
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The provisions and mechanisms of the NPT (the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the 1997 Additional Protocol) have proven inadequate for this challenge, because the NPT does not ban development of dual-purpose technology and accumulation of critical materials for peaceful purposes. This situation threatens the nuclear-weapons nonproliferation institutions and regime, particularly because many provisions need to be adapted to today’s situation, which has not been done.
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Contrary to the NPT’s logic, peaceful nuclear energy has not become an attractive alternative to developing nuclear weapons. Rather, it has become a means and pretext for countries seeking to acquire nuclear weapons or the technical ability to quickly produce them (attain the “nuclear threshold”).
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The first scenario is an almost-endless cycle of violence, with periodic pauses and deepening authoritarianism. This scenario would extend the current situation, adding misery to and threatening the rest of the world. Historical parallels would be the Thirty Years’ War, which actually extended more than eighty years if one includes the long struggle for Dutch independence against Spanish rule, and embroiled most of Europe. Close to 40 percent of Germany’s population was killed, and a peace settlement was achieved only when all the warring parties were exhausted.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that China has made strides. Back in 2021, during the creation of Global Trends 2030, the authors surveyed Western scientists about China’s progress.
How likely is a Sino-US conflict by 2035? There is increasing risk, unless there is an effort to develop a more inclusive mechanism for resolving differences and curbing any escalation in tensions. Again, it will probably be up to US and Chinese leaders to see the risks in the status quo and move toward security cooperation. A Cold War in Asia would not be easily contained, and it would completely undermine globalization and prospects for a more peaceful and prosperous world.
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Migration and mobility could be important factors in ameliorating the workforce and skills gaps caused by aging, although rising political and social opposition to immigration may act as an obstacle. Populations in youthful countries could have increasing opportunities so long as they can acquire the skills, and if immigration barriers do not prevent mobility. The first globalization of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries saw bigger movements, proportionally, of people emigrating (mostly from Europe), and also high rates of return to their home countries.
Going forward, the central challenge will to be create cities that are sources of social and political stability. Historically, political revolutions have started in crowded cities by middle classes who see their path toward economic opportunity becoming more difficult. Currently, there are fears that growth is slowing in many megacities around the world, and is not keeping pace with the needs of their expanding populations.
My hunch is that the information technologies, and the automation and manufacturing technologies, may get the biggest traction and become the centerpiece of the technology revolutions out to 2035. Every day, there is a report about the greater use of robots. Many Chinese factories are facing a dwindling worker population as China’s aging accelerates. Workers are demanding higher pay and better working conditions.
In the first part of this descriptive paper I consider growth in household consumption for households with below median income. The pessimistic narrative on real wages is somewhat at odds with casual empiricism about material goods consumption. If you spend time working with high school students, you notice that even in low income areas, many of the students have cell phones and have access to cable TV and internet service at home. Access to these powerful and modern tools suggests that low income families have seen important gains in at least some areas of consumption. The quality and variety of home appliances and electronics (TVs) in the average home is surely vastly superior to what people owned in the 1970s. American homes have become more spacious and cars are both higher quality and there are more cars per family.
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Over time, these technologies could be a more significant part of the solution. But, increasingly, experts are looking to specific policies—such as water pricing—and more comprehensive planning to understand complicated sets of tradeoffs involved in allocating available water resources. Water pricing has been shown to be very effective in reducing consumer demand in urban areas, and in pushing suppliers and consumers to recover wasted water through plugging of leaks. According to one estimate, a “staggering 32 billion cubic meters of treated water is lost” in urban areas due to leaking pipes.
Just as many diets, it promotes restricting the intake of foods rich in high-calorie count. Nourishments such as refined carbs and sugar are a danger to the progress of the diet.
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Four years ago, when Global Trends 2030 was published, the answer was largely no. Increasingly, the facts on the ground would suggest otherwise. They do not add up to a cohesive plan to substitute wholesale all Western institutions and practices. However, they clearly indicate that there are some no-go areas, particularly those connected to regime change, democracy promotion, state control over NGOs, and maintaining sovereignty. Russia and China, in particular, see themselves as great powers and, as such, believe they have special rights to dominance in their regions. However, as other powers like India develop, it is likely that they will see themselves as regional powers with inherent prerogatives. It is worth recalling the United States’ expansive Manifest Destiny and nineteenth-century Monroe Doctrine, claiming special rights to determine the future of the Western Hemisphere.
The growing economic crisis in the Gulf would encourage the Shia communities to ramp up opposition to Sunni monarchs. The eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, where the Shia are in the majority, stage a rebellion. Bahrain becomes the arena of an escalating conflict between the Shia majority and the Sunni monarchy, which oscillates between appeasement and repression. Saudi Arabia and the UAE reinforce their garrisons in Bahrain as the Quds forces strengthen their Bahraini cells, which engage in periodic terrorism.
The world certainly faces challenges, and Global Risks 2035, one of the most important documents about our global future written in recent years, describes this darkness in detail. Mat Burrows, the Director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and author of this paper, was optimistic about our collective future when he wrote the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends 2030 report four years ago. Today, he fears what is coming next and many of his rationales are compelling. Still, there is much light to behold. The world may be full of risks, but there are many opportunities for the United States, along with its allies and partners, to pursue. As the United States looks to weather the storm of the next twenty years, it would do well to prepare for constant change and find ways to harness it for national advantages.
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As emerging technologies come online, the lack of a truly global institutional framework could be particularly dangerous. Assuring the future security of the Internet is particularly important in this regard, because all the new emerging technologies—bio, 3D printing, robotics, big data—take for granted a secure, global Internet. Everyone loses if cyber crime and cyber terrorism undermine the Internet. In the worst-case scenarios, in which cyber crime proliferates or strong national borders fragment the Internet, an Atlantic Council study, as mentioned, found that the economic costs could be as much as $90 trillion out to 2030, in addition to the risk of open conflict.
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Since you were in elementary school, no doubt, you have heard the term ‘diet’ countless times. As if that was not enough, at work, home, and even on vacations, it pops up in almost all conversations that you might come across. It is logically appropriate and in place that we revisit the topic time and again due to emerging health concerns worldwide. It is impossible to separate your health and the diet of preference that you love. Have you noticed the scores of advices that flood our modern times, claiming to present answers to dietary needs? Some fellows claim to give the best recipe for dealing with certain health conditions even with little knowledge of food and nutrition.
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The Obama administration set in place plans for a 20 percent role for renewables in US electricity generation by 2030. Over the longer term, the OECD nations believe they could obtain more than 54 percent of their power capacity from renewables by 2040.
The continuing instability in Iraq and Syria would reinforce authoritarianism elsewhere, hampering reform. Initially, Saudi and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies make progress in starting to get more nationals into private-sector jobs. Increasingly, more women participate in the workforce, but good job opportunities remain limited. The available new jobs are in the service sector and comparably low paid. After a decade of relatively low oil prices and modest non-oil sector growth, the Gulf governments must drastically cut social-welfare programs and subsidies. They begin introducing value-added taxes (VAT) to make up for dwindling state revenues. After a decade of cutbacks, living standards for most Saudi and other GCC households continue to drop, and opposition groups begin to grow. In the face of that opposition, conservatives throw out the reformers in the governments, reasserting rigorous authoritarian rule and religious orthodoxy. The specter of continuing instability elsewhere, and middle-class fears of its spread to the Gulf, bolsters the conservatives.
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With both sides increasingly viewing the Asian regional order as a zero-sum one, there is no obvious solution that does not involve a “loss of face” on one side or the other. The hope would be that greater economic interdependence would increase the cautiousness on both sides. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was sold in the United States as a way of keeping China from making the rules. But if China became an eventual partner, then there would be incentive for the United States and its Asian allies, as well as China, to increase at least economic cooperation. The failure of the TPP to pass the US Congress would not only undermine US creditability in its allies’ minds, but also eliminate a potential opportunity to pursue a joint framework with China. Otherwise, with the increasingly tight military ties between the United States and its allies—and higher military spending as Asia overtakes NATO—the scene is set for a collision between the United States and China.
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Virtually any part of the post-Soviet space and surrounding regions—and also the western part of the Asia-Pacific region and northern part of the Indian Ocean—could become the site of serious competition between the main powers. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the Black Sea is becoming a theater of military confrontation between Russia and the United States/NATO. This increases the danger of an unintended escalation of military action, as a result of incidents at sea or in the Black Sea region’s airspace.
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Conflict could also occur if Pakistan’s domestic political situation flared up, or if Islamic radicals (such as the Taliban) or international terrorists (such as al-Qaeda) obtained nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis fear that India would provoke political chaos if it used force to settle the Kashmir issue.
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The Global Trends literature has been greatly enriched in recent years as more governmental organizations, businesses, universities, think tanks, and others have begun to study the rapidly changing geopolitical, socioeconomic, and technological landscapes. Since leaving the intelligence community, the author has directed the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security. The initiative has undertaken important research and writing on a number of the trends analyzed in this volume. Other units of the Atlantic Council have also contributed important insights to this study. Several chapters indicate the places where the findings of those researches and reports have been used, in some cases extensively so.
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However, rapidly urbanizing countries have an opportunity to mitigate these risks by employing a wide array of emerging technologies to solve problems such as overcrowding, traffic congestion, resource use, housing, and disaster-response systems. Information and communications technologies (ICT)—nonexistent in Europe, Latin America, or the United States during the heydays of those regions’ rapid urbanization—can be used to enhance nearly every type of good or service.
The current drop in global oil prices could somewhat slow the pace of nuclear-energy development, but will not change the fundamental trend. Nuclear energy (as in the space sector, which is linked to missile technology), will have not just an economic dimension, but also a clear political one, in terms of countries’ status, prestige, and defense capability.
Four years later, much of the same story still pertains. The World Bank recently produced a report that emphasized the importance of water as a framework for thinking about the complex scarcities problem, and as a potential key for unlocking a long-term solution. In the absence of “significant increases in water efficiency,” particularly in the agricultural sector, the World Bank estimated that demand would exceed current sustainable water supplies by a whopping 40 percent in as little as fifteen years. Water is a finite resource and is already in short supply in many regions, particularly those with fast-growing populations. With climate change, the finite resource turns into one with less reliability and more variability—both spatially and temporally—in supply. However, once a system for ensuring adequate water supplies can be put in place, then problems such as low agriculture productivity can begin to be tackled. Obviously, there is also the problem of too much water—with the prevalence of extreme weather and storm surges, some low-lying places are increasingly flooded. Solving that problem is also necessary.
Demographically, the West has, for a long time, been in the minority. What’s more recent is the aging of the Western population (analyzed in chapter 2), which is already occurring in Japan and Europe, beginning to squeeze the availability of resources for anything but health, social security, and interest payments on debt. Unless healthcare becomes far more efficient, the US economy will be overburdened with healthcare and pension costs as the “baby boomer” generation ages.
Owing to the limited military capabilities of the countries in Central and Southeast Asia, as well as Africa, such conflicts would be small in scale and duration. Such conflicts could be settled through intervention by, and/or assistance from, the UN and regional collective-security organizations.
Besides bringing some peace to Syria and Iraq, lowering Sunni-Shia tensions is a key requirement for building cooperation—no easy task in light of the age-old resentments and more recent distrust. But there is a precedent for building cooperation in the midst of tensions. The Helsinki agreement was forged during the Cold War, fifteen years before its peaceful conclusion. One of the unique attributes of the 1975 Helsinki Accord is that it encouraged society-to-society exchanges, and these continued despite increasing US-Soviet hostility in the 1980s over Afghanistan. Arms-control efforts—because they were state-to-state matters—rose and fell depending on the state of US-Soviet relations. The “human dimension” of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) was ongoing and, in the end, proved a vital factor in bringing down the Soviet regime.
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The involvement of the major powers in any indirect conflicts would entail providing political, economic, and military-technical (arms and military supplies and assistance) help to proxy states and nonstate armed groups. The hybrid nature of this involvement would expand with the sending of military instructors and specialists, commanders to organize military operations, private armed groups and volunteers, special forces, and regular troops—as well as the direct involvement of the major powers’ aircraft, artillery, naval forces, and air defenses in border areas.
Terrorists are now focused on causing mass casualties, but this could change as they understand the scope of the disruptions that can be caused by cyber warfare. Other emerging technologies, such as synthetic biology, in the hands of terrorists could cause significant loss of life, in addition to ecological and agricultural damage. Bioterrorism is no longer a rare incident or remote possibility. The tools needed to sequence, synthesize, manipulate, assemble, and transmit DNA are increasingly accessible to non-experts. Amateurs in one place designing a genetic sequence on a computer can send a code to a 3D printer in another location. In 2021, scientists in the United States and the Netherlands sought to create a deadly influenza that would be transmissible between mammals.
Newsweek welcomes your feedback on any item that warrants correction. We are committed to providing journalism that is responsible and accurate, and our policy is to make any needed corrections promptly and transparently. We note corrections at the bottom of the story concerned.
The pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, where total fertility rate (TFR) only dropped from 6/18 children per woman to 5/10 over the last twenty years, has been much slower than many demographers anticipated. Africa’s population is the world’s fastest growing. And even if fertility in Africa falls, the continent’s population will continue to grow rapidly because of the large cohorts entering childbearing ages during the next two decades. A continuing lack of a reduction in Africa’s fertility rate has big implications for the whole planet. Many demographers and environmental scientists had hoped to see a plateauing of population growth by mid-century. Without a drop in fertility, the world could end up with a population of eleven to twelve billion, instead of about nine billion, by the end of the century. A world with eleven billion people or more would put enormous stress on resources, at a time when climate change may also be affecting food production and the availability of water in Earth’s central belt.
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The charts below plot the spread of democracy using the 20-point Polity IV and Freedom House scores (reversed so that higher is more free). The first chart shows world democracy values with population weighting of countries. The second is simple country average. Freedom House scores have been basically flat, with Polity IV showing some incremental progress in recent years.
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Global Trends 2030 underlined the potential for a world of resource scarcity for the poorest on the planet if action was not taken to better ensure adequate water and food supplies—and warned that a perfect storm was brewing. Climate-change impacts are likely to be the biggest around the central core of the planet, exactly where population growth is the greatest. The expected temperature increases will make it harder to grow the same crops. By changing precipitation patterns in areas where rainwater was the principal source for agriculture, climate change also makes it harder to produce adequate food supplies for a growing population. Even before the onset of climate change, agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa was not keeping pace with population growth.
The optimistic school, which includes Bill Gates, points to the lag in the measurable effects from ongoing innovation. It takes time before innovations are absorbed into the broader economy. This is the reason why any effects from the emerging robotics, advanced automation, and artificial intelligence technologies have not been seen yet. Wait a while—at least five to seven years—before counting out the productivity gains from the new technologies.
Clearly, energy is no longer the threat to the world’s economic growth—as was thought to be the case in the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s—despite the fact that energy demand could continue to grow at a relatively high rate, though decreasing over time, in the range of 1/4-1/7 percent a year out to 2035. Developing countries will be the big drivers of energy demand; China is likely to account for 40 percent or more of total energy demand out to 2035.
Urban Oasis may be another feature, adding to the fragmentation in the first scenario and moderating any bipolar divisions in the second and third. As in the Middle Ages, cities are rapidly the sites of technological development and sources of economic growth. Youths are attracted to cities because of these economic opportunities. For as long as cities have been in existence, they have been the places where there is the more diversity and greater acceptance of the foreign or other. In the Holy Roman Empire, cities sought a special “free city” status, allowing them to set their own rules. Traders could thrive there, where elsewhere they were overly taxed, discriminated against, or in fear for their lives. In the most stressful international environments, major cities would band together in a modern-day Hanseatic League, maintaining levels of cooperation on technology, resource management, and free exchange of people and immigration. As in the Middle Ages, the major cities may never be able to prevent the downward spiral of regions into conflicts, but they could act as sources for regeneration or renaissance. Given that metropolitan cities encompass many more people than ever before in history, their clout would be greater, and could be more efficacious in braking the slide into full-scale protectionism or state-on-state conflict.
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Everyone knows what happens next: Sunni-Shia powers are drawn into an open, all-out conflict. It is perhaps a logical extension of the disappointing results of reform and social unravelling. It would have huge global political and economic repercussions, amounting to a worst-case scenario for the region and the world. However, a war on the scale of full regional conflict is not inevitable, even if the likely cycle of continuing strife and authoritarianism prevails. The limited risk, however, should be enough to prompt the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and others to think about ways to make sure the slide to all-out conflict does not happen, which points to another and more positive scenario.
The population explosions make it difficult to turn youth bulges into demographic dividends for the economy. Afghanistan, Yemen, the Palestinian territories, and a number of sub-Saharan countries are projected to see gains in their working-age populations of around 130 percent. No economy could absorb such numbers. In addition, the persistence of high birth rates among minorities within countries will cause potential imbalances and tensions with majority populations. Kurdish fertility in southeastern Turkey has stalled at about four children per woman. In Israel, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish minority, or Haredim, and the Arab sectors will double their absolute numbers over the next twenty years, while the percentage of non-Haredim and secular population—with lower birth rates—will drop from 51 percent in 2021 to 42 percent in 2030. However, the non-Haredim and secular populations provide the vast majority of the Israeli workforce. Such a reduction in numbers cannot help but negatively impact the economy.
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The multilateralist global system that the United States and the West built after the end of the Second World War was premised on an economically strong United States and West. In 1945, the United States was the only victor that was not completely devastated. World War II had brought the country out of the Great Depression, and the US GDP constituted more than 50 percent of the world’s total. Into the twenty-first century, the members of the Group of Seven (G7) were the world’s political and economic heavyweights. It has only been in the past several years that the collective GDP of the developing world—led by China—has surpassed the developed world’s. Even as non-Western powers grow, it is psychologically hard for the West to think about relinquishing its reins.
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Moreover, it is not as if traditional US partners—Europe and Japan—are doing much better. Japan and many European countries are aging faster than the United States, eliminating labor-force growth as a driver of future economic growth. Europe’s and Japan’s economic performances have been declining since the 1990s.
Historically, energy transitions take decades to accomplish because of the large-scale investment and infrastructure building required to segue from one technology to another. In addition, making the new technologies competitive takes time. There is no doubt that the world has already started to transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal. For example, advanced OECD economies could pass peak coal consumption by 2021. But, a substantial transition out of fossil fuel and into renewables is unlikely until 2035-40. For that to happen, key challenges would need to be addressed, such as progress on lower-cost and more effective energy-storage systems. Another key enabler for the expansion of renewables, such as solar and wind energy, is development of a smart grid, which would increase the efficiency of the power supply. A smart grid could help utilities gauge shift in demand in real time, allowing them to better synchronize supplies.
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Though less violent, the more frequent cyberattacks are also evidence of the capability of individuals and small groups to use new information technologies to do increasing harm. In collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group and the University of Denver’s Pardee Center, the Atlantic Council recently published a study showing the eye-popping consequences of increasing cybercrime, mostly from nonstate groups and individuals. For advanced economies, the costs of protecting against cyberattacks have begun to outweigh cyber benefits. Although states such as the United States, Russia, China, and European nations have the ability to do even more harm, terrorist networks are becoming more tech savvy and may soon be able to cause large-scale harm.
Under any scenario that takes place by 2035 (much later than the deadline set by the 1992 Convention), global stocks of chemical weapons will have been destroyed in full. Those pertaining to biological weapons are different, however, because the ban on these weapons established by the 1972 Convention will be not enforced due to the lack of a verification system. Development of new bans and control measures for new types of bio-weapons (genetic engineering and so on) would be possible on a multilateral basis only in the context of cooperation among the major powers.
Gradually, a growing share of global financial resources will be concentrated in those regional clusters. As with the growth of regional trade, the regional clusters will be more self-encapsulated, spurred by rising domestic demand in China and other developing countries with growing middle classes. With the role of electronic money likely to grow, the traditional banking system will probably also undergo major revision, with potential impacts on governmental powers.
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Most low-income countries concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have the opposite problem. Instead of aging, their populations are youthful. The sooner they can bring down their high birth rates, the earlier they can move into the demographic bonus years in which they have the opportunity to boost growth. So long as fertility remains high, so do healthcare costs. Forty-eight percent of Afghanistan’s population is under the age of fourteen, and infant care is estimated to account for more than 40 percent of the country’s total healthcare costs.
The world is entering a period in which the West’s postwar social-welfare system is under growing threat, as the global demographic structure is being turned upside down. It is not just the West, but also China and other middle-income powers, that will have to deal with an aging workforce and unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. For sub-Saharan African countries whose birthrates remain high, overpopulation carries big costs. Unless they can provide the burgeoning youth populations with education, skills, and employment, the youth bulges are a source of instability.
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If comprehensive agreement on the Iran nuclear issue is successfully implemented, this would pave the way to broad new opportunities for strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime and controls over critical technology and materials, through cooperation between the major powers and regional players. Universalization of some principles and norms of the comprehensive agreement would greatly enhance the NPT and its regimes and institutions. At the same time, lifting the embargo and restoring relations between the West and Iran would reduce Russia’s influence in the region and open the way for Iran to export its hydrocarbons to the world market. This would result in lower long-term global oil and gas prices, and offer the European Union alternative sources of energy imports. Such developments would have detrimental consequences for Russia’s economy.
Despite preventive measures, the risk of theft of nuclear munitions and materials will continue to 2035, and will probably increase as peaceful nuclear-energy use expands and more countries possess nuclear materials and technology (the number will increase from thirty to forty-five to fifty by 2035). The end of Russian-US cooperation on security of nuclear facilities and materials—which would occur in an atmosphere of growing major-state hostility—would intensify this threat. In this situation, terrorists would undoubtedly obtain a nuclear explosive device by 2035.
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In East Asia, China has been undertaking a massive buildup of its conventional forces, its navy in particular, against a backdrop of a shift in the nuclear balance of power in China’s favor. The scope of China’s navy will objectively take in the region in which US allies and partners (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea) are located.
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The financial architecture will also become more regionalized. The central role played by the financial centers of New York and London will also diminish, and a multitiered financial architecture will develop. Following the UK Brexit, those centers’ share in financial intermediation will decrease, as a second pole of global finance forms in the Eurozone. A third pole will develop in East Asia and Southeast Asia.
In 2021, at the time of the publication of Global Trends 2030, the authors held out hope of a peaceful Middle East joining other regions in rapid modernization. The report suggested political Islam could moderate as it assumed power, which clearly did not work in Egypt.
To what degree China becomes innovative, without politically reforming, will be a critical test of the importance of traditional Western liberal values for prosperity and progress. So far, China has shown its ability to do very nicely without, but whether China achieves its goal of being an innovative society will be conclusive proof of the proposition, one way or another.
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As geopolitical tensions escalate, conflicts will become more likely to spill over into regional nuclear war between second-tier nuclear powers. Regional conflicts that have the risk of turning nuclear can be ranked in probability by region as follows: South Asia, the Far East, India-China, and the Middle East.
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The Obama administration—considered among the most multilateralist of recent administrations—campaigned hard in 2021 to convince Europeans not to join China’s proposed Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB). It was as if the United States was against any governance structure not “made in the USA,” even when those running the AIIB have made clear their intentions of operating with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.
If East-West tensions increase, the development of defensive and offensive weapons could drastically undermine strategic stability and destroy the nuclear arms-control regime, including arms limitations and nonproliferation. In this more competitive context, an arms race in space might develop. The space powers will continue to develop quantitative and qualitative space-based missile attack early warning systems, intelligence, navigation, communications and broadcasting, and military command-and-control systems.
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Western middle classes are also frustrated. They have seen their household incomes stagnate or decline as there is increasing competition from new globalized labor markets in the developing world. The 2008 financial crisis accelerated the sense of decline. American adults are now as pessimistic as their European counterparts about their children’s future.
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Stability: Lack of stability is the main issue for overpronators, simplistically saying. But once you get a shoe that has a secure fit and a firm sole, stability and balance will be restored for you.
Either way, what happens will have major importance for the global system. An international peace settlement would help rebuild global cooperation and could be the first step toward a reinvigorated, rules-based order. A festering Middle East would continue to be a source of instability for more than the region.
There is no doubt that the rise of the global middle class is a story of epic proportions, contributing greatly to individual empowerment. More and more individuals have the ability to realize their potential, no longer trapped in a day-to-day struggle to survive. The world is on track eliminate most extreme poverty in several decades—a historic achievement in view of the fact that, for much of human history, the vast majority of the world’s population was poor. However, the emerging global middle class is waking up to a new reality of lowered expectations, if not frustration.
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Much of the distress the world has experienced during the last five to ten years has been due to mistaken ideas about what was supposed to happen. With these notions now shaken, it is worthwhile to start by looking back twenty or so years before projecting ahead to 2035. In the 1990s, the United States and the West were enjoying the benefits of the end of the Cold War and the initial burst of globalization. Certainly, the Yugoslav breakup clouded the mid-1990s, but most assumed things were still on track toward a more peaceful, prosperous, and secure future, in which the rest of the world would catch up to and model itself on the West.
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Winners: Certainly, this graphic shows that the top-fifth percentile has done very well, seeing incomes increase by up to 60 percent in the 1988-2008 period. But, it also shows that other income groups have done well.
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However cumbersome, politically unpopular, and ineffective at times, there is little alternative to increased global cooperation if one does not want to see higher risks of conflict and economic degradation. Without some sort of bolstered global governance, the West would end up with less sovereignty in a “dog-eat-dog” world, in which it was increasingly in the minority. But can the United States and the West rise to the challenge of investing in a global-governance system that will not always favor their interests on every issue? Historically, the United States could be especially generous because it was on top of the world in about everything after the Second World War. Europeans came to truly believe in pooling sovereignty and joint governance after centuries of internecine conflict. The tough economic times at home have seen US and European publics become distrustful of overarching multilateral institutions, believing the will of the United States or individual European countries will not be served. It is oftentimes easier for political leaders to fall in with the public mood rather than display leadership that might appear to work against it.
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The other potential scenario is that of armed conflict in response to attempts by Beijing to settle the Taiwan issue through force. If such a scenario occurred, neutral countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries that have territorial disputes with China, would be alarmed about their security.
Fragmented World is the base-case scenario, linearly projecting the current trajectory. In this scenario, globalization would slow appreciably, but not die. The author would expect that TPP and the TTIP would not be passed. Protectionist forces would strengthen, but not dominate. There would be little forward movement on free trade, but limited backsliding. The one area where protectionist forces would prevail is on immigration policy. Borders along the EU’s outside perimeter would harden. There would be no repeat of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open asylum policy. After two years of negotiations, there would be a soft Brexit deal, allowing the UK access to the single market. However, the UK would have to adhere to the EU rules—except those regarding free movement, for which the UK would set its own policies.
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Like Europe in the nineteenth century, Egypt will have gone through periods of revolution followed by authoritarian reassertion. The Egyptian government can no longer rely on the cash-strapped Gulf regimes for assistance, prompting rulers to even more ruthlessly suppress dissidence. However, there could be a succession of rulers, as some will undoubtedly fall due to riots and rising food prices. With the level of the Nile falling to historically low levels, Egyptian rulers resort to war against Ethiopia, which Cairo accuses of damming more and more water at the Nile’s source for hydropower. A defeat would trigger a new revolution, and much lower standing for the Egyptian military. However, with a society increasingly split between reformers and conservatives, there is no alternative to military rule.
There is some doubt, even in China, that present-day China could ever be a high-tech powerhouse. President Xi Jinping and China’s other Communist Party leaders desperately want China to go high tech, but they also are not prepared to loosen their grip on political dissent. Under Xi, there has been more suppression of any opposition. In the West, science has always thrived in environments in which free thought has been allowed, if not encouraged. Creativity is another area in which Western critics believe China can never equal Western ingenuity. China’s schooling is geared toward rote memory—the obverse of trying to encourage creativity.
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Maybe because there was such a push toward democratization in the wake of Cold War’s end and the fall of communism, the transition periods for anocracies or semi-democracies to mature into full democracies has been lengthening, particularly for those countries with little previous experience with democratic governance. In the decade following the end of the Cold War (1990-99), there were approximately 3/2 democratic transitions per year. From 2000-12, however, that number fell to just 1/8 per year.
Before work was started on Global Trends 2030, two academics, University of California at Berkeley Professor Steve Weber and then-RAND analyst Eli Ratner, were asked to evaluate the previous four editions. The Weber/Ratner verdict was very positive, praising the works for identifying the key drivers of change and praising the regional analysis. The shortfall was in forecasting the rate of change. Even in subsequent editions after Global Trends 2021, the authors underestimated how quickly change was happening. Global Trends 2021 foresaw, for example, the future international system as becoming multipolar, but not as early as the 2010s.
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The United States will remain the leader over the long term in developing missile-defense systems, in both technological capability and scale of deployment. Russia will develop its own defense system within the air-space defenses (which combine air defenses, missile defenses, and space defenses). China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Israel, and the European countries in NATO could all make technological and financial contributions to developing missile defenses.
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Besides extending poverty, water scarcity increases the potential for conflict outbreaks. Like poverty, there are usually multiple factors behind any conflict.
Given the broader geopolitical and technological trends, in the best case, the world is looking at multipolarity with limited multilateralism. There would still exist some cooperation where there was strong interest among the great powers. However, fragmentation could easily slide into open conflict. In that worst case, the multipolarity would evolve into another bipolarity—with China, Russia, and their partners pitted against the United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies. In that scenario, conflict would be almost inevitable.
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With climate change and an expected turning away from hydrocarbon fuels, nuclear-energy use is set to increase considerably to 2035. The expansion will occur first and foremost in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as in many unstable parts of the world like the Middle East/Gulf regions. At the same time, the barriers between “military” and “peaceful” nuclear energy use will break down, particularly through the use of nuclear fuel-cycle technology.
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Iraq has not suffered quite the devastation that Syria has, but the state is increasingly hollow and broken up along ethnic and religious lines. ISIS would be a memory in 2035, but its legacy would live in an endless series of Sunni insurgencies that would be put down by the Shia government in Baghdad, sometimes with the help of the United States. After lengthy negotiations, Turkey settles for a Kurdish state in northern Iraq under its control. Economically, Kurdistan remains highly dependent on Turkey for getting its oil to market, and for imports. Shia-held Baghdad does not recognize Kurdish independence, nor does most of the rest of the international community, which hopes for Iraqi unity. While the United States may keep a hand in, Shia areas become increasingly dependent on Iran’s help to put down the Sunni insurgencies.
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In an environment of growing cooperation among the major powers, Russia and the United States could reduce their nuclear arsenals to around one thousand strategic and tactical warheads in ten to fifteen years. At the same time, the scale of deployment and technical characteristics of future offensive and defensive conventional, high-precision weapons systems could be limited by agreements between Russia and the United States, and also by multilateral agreements. The UK and France will get involved in this process, in one way or another, by the mid-2020s. By this time, it could be possible to bring the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force and conclude the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, at least among the five big nuclear powers.
What Happens with a Sustained Migration Influx: The rate of decline in Germany’s labor pool will accelerate between 2021 and 2021, and be a net drag on the German economy. A sustained influx of migrants would reverse this trend, so long as migrants become as productive as the average German worker. In such a scenario, migrants would reduce labor’s drag on economic growth by up to half, and potentially add more than $350 billion in GDP (relative to the base case) by 2035.
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While these are worrisome developments, they conceal the fact that the world is in a better place than it has ever been. Violence continues to decline across the globe as the ages and wages of billions of people increase. Effective governance, while challenged, is prevalent from the state to the municipal level. Technology is empowering a growing global middle class, allowing millions to find opportunity. A power transfer from the West to the East and South will continue to bring many out of poverty and allow those regions to care for their own security. Even in the Middle East, the poster child for instability, a growing private sector and youth bulge may actually prove a positive more so than an impediment to order.
The situation going forward is fraught with difficulty. It depends upon leadership on both sides threading a slender needle. There are increasing forces on both sides—including a nationalistic Chinese public—that see conflict as inevitable, which is a dangerous leading indicator.
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Growing cooperation among the major powers might occur in military operations under UN aegis to: impose or maintain peace; prevent genocide, ethnic cleansing, and humanitarian disasters; and, perhaps, to prevent technological disasters and protect the environment. With international terrorism and transnational crime set to grow, an increase in operations to combat them with more and better cooperation among UN member states is expected.
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Given the more fractured environments, this report has detailed three overarching scenarios, or alternative worlds, that appear the most plausible in present circumstances. In two out of the three, the more fractured environment does not impede all cooperation. In the third, the world slides into a situation in which conflict is the likeliest outcome. The author would have wished to construct a set of more optimistic scenarios, such as one in which East-West differences are submerged and a new, more cohesive global order is born. However, while it would be nice to see that happen, the chances appear slim in the next two decades. These three scenarios are the best and most appropriate ones for planning purposes. By all means, the US government and others should be thinking about how to maximize global cooperation and minimize the scope for conflict. Slipping from the first scenario to the second would be a disaster for humanity.